Day 16: Grinding

First off, I played the satellite to the $750K guarantee tournament.  I got demolished.  People played it very very loose.  I was outgunned.  I would raise three times the big blind on the button to 2 limpers with a good hand, AJ suited or TT.  In every case I would be re-raised all-in and someone else would call.  I wanted to play.  I wanted a good chance to win.  I didn’t want to gamble too much.  I would fold and wait for another opportunity.  After 3 or so of these tries and a few laps around the table in this turbo tournament I was already short stacked.  I moved all-in with pocket kings pre-flop and was called by two people: AJ off suit and 99.  The board had 2 aces and a 9.  So much for that.

So, I went back to the cash tables.  I grinded and grinded.  I waited for premium hands.  I played in position.  I played tight, but raised aggressively.  I folded when I was probably beat, but raised when I was winning.  I had a lot of success.  But I still had a losing day.  Why?  Two hands.  Two hands separated me from my money.

Losing Hand 1: Accidental Trips

I didn’t even play on purpose.  I was in the big blind and had the kind of hand I would fold to limpers if I were the small blind.  UTG limped in.  The button called.  Small blind folded.  I called with 2 6 off suit.  Up comes the flop: 2 2 4.  Eureka!  There’s $.35 in the pot.  I check to allow the other players to make bad decisions.  UTG goes all-in for his $4.  The button raises to $4.55, his whole stack.  I’m dumbfounded.  It is only possible for one of them to have a 2.  So either 1 or both of them is making a very bad decision.  I start to think.  I put UTG on something like JJ or TT, which he assumes is good because they are over cards to the board.  He hasn’t played very well so far, so I suspect he’s made the big mistake.  The button is a bit trickier.  I put him on A 6 or something of the like.  I can’t imagine either paid any money to get in with a 2.  Why pay any money for A 2 even, right?  That would be the only hand I could imagine someone having that would beat mine.  I decide that they have both made a mistake.  I call.

UTG turns over AK unsuited.  Bad move.  The button turns over J 2 suited.  I guess I read him wrong?  Who puts any money in with J 2 suited?  I guess that guy does.

Losing Hand 2: Counterfeited

In this hand I played better.  I made the “right” decision and the river came in to screw me again.  In this hand, I had grinded up from $8 to just over $10.  I was playing very well and only very good hands.  The only exception was that if it folded around to me in position, I might raise pre-flop with a good, but not great, hand.  This was one of those times.  Everyone folded to me.  I raised to 3.5 times the big blind in the cutoff with K9 suited.  The button folded.  The small blind folded and the big blind called.  The flop came up A K 9.  I find this to be an exceptional flop for me.  I don’t think the BB has A K.  He might have A 9, but I doubt it.  I need to find out.  I figure a bet of .50 will tell me.  If he has A K or A 9, I expect he will raise me.  He calls.  I suspect he has A x.  I figure that, like most low-limit players, he will overvalue his paired ace and he’s expecting to win the battle of the kicker.  He’s going to be upset when he sees that I’ve got 2 pair to his one.  The turn comes up:

A K 9 J

There’s now a possible straight, and that has me a little nervous, but I don’t think he would have called my raise.  Who knows, though?

So, what now?  Do I put in a big raise and see if I get re-raised?  Do I assume he hasn’t kept QT and bet out.  Maybe he has AT and he’s waiting on the Q.  Do I want to take the chance that he gets it on the river?  I decide that the appropriate bet is to go all in and take down the pot.  I’m confused when he calls, except that it seems like par for the low-limit course for one of these “kicker showdowns”.  He doesn’t know if he has the kicker, but he’ll call just about any bet to find out.

He turns over his cards and I’m very pleased to see A 5 just as I expected.  I imagine him on the other side saying “what?!?”.  It is satisfying…for one whole second…then the river comes up J.  I watch the chips go over to his stack.  I think for a few seconds.  What happened?

I was counterfeited.  His 2 pair, aces and jacks, just beat my two pair, which is now kings and jacks.  I was about 75% to win on the flop and 81% to win on the turn.  But all that matters is that he was with me on the river, where my chances of winning were 0%.

What is Poker About?

So I have a new thought about poker.  I know everyone says that it is about getting into the right pots at the right times.  Or “making equity decisions”.  Or “getting the right odds on your money”.

I have decided that the part that is the hardest part, the part that separates the great players from the good players is what they can get away from.  Who cares what you get dealt?  Without a doubt betting well and telling consistent stories with your bets makes a huge difference too.  But us bad players can’t get away from our 2 6 hands when the flop comes up 2 2 4.  Great players can.  Us bad players can’t let K K go even after the fourth raise pre-flop.  Us bad players see an inconsistency in betting patterns and say “he’s trying to bully me” instead of “maybe he has that one hand that is better than mine”.  Us bad player…lose money.

Just Enough to Keep You Playing

I don’t think this is unique to my brother, but he always says that when you golf, there’s that one shot that you hit that brings you back the next time.  No matter how poorly you’ve played.  Three feet from the pin off the tee on a par 3 is enough to make you forget the 30 minutes you spent in the woods looking for your ball on the last hole.

Last night for me, that was a $1 (I’ve lost confidence and didn’t think I could hack it on the, ever so pricey $2 tables so I played a $1) single table sit n’ go.  I played magically.  I bullied everyone like crazy.  I was behind for only moments.  I executed great steals, played hands to maximum winnings and when the table was down to 4, I had 3/4 of the chips.  I had no problem winning the tournament without a moment of doubt.  Woohoo, I made that $1.25 into $4.50.  I’m a great poker player.

What now?  Am I the only one who wishes he could afford to play at the higher levels where a bet of 2/3 the pot will chase someone off of a paired ace?  Where a pot sized bet will likely cause chasers to fold?  Only, I’m not really ready.  I hear it doesn’t get any better.  I hear that if you lose at low-limit, you’ll lose at the higher limits.  Oh well, I guess I’m back to grinding.