My New 25NLHE Observation

For today, I have a simple observation. Online 25NLHE is a very hard game. I know, I know, there are lots of people who are going to disagree. Yes, there are some very soft players at this level, but that’s not the point. 25NLHE is hard because you can’t count on anything. I think there are a lot of really bad players at this level, but I think there are some very good players at this level. Because it is the online game, players move around a lot. Because it is this low level, there are a lot of tables and it is very hard to gather notes/stats on any significant percentage of the players. What this means for us is that it is very hard to tell when someone has the nuts or just thinks they do. For instance, MP limps, HJ raises to 5X and I call with TdJd on the button. BB and MP call. The flop comes 9c 8d 3d. BB and MP check, HJ bets 1/2 pot, I re-raise about 3X his bet. BB and MP fold but HJ calls. The turn comes Qd. HJ checks. I bet 1/2 pot. HJ shoves.

What does he have? This is the problem at 25NL, some players are really good and see the flush potential of my hand and worry about it. Others think their K9o is the nuts or they just decided to protect their set. But maybe this player has Ad 9d or even Kd 9d. At this level, this could be any of those holdings. Heck, at this level, this could be someone with pocket aces or kings.

The hard part at this level is that reading the betting is hard, since the player with pocket kings isn’t trying to run a bluff…he still thinks he has the best hand. The player with Ad 9d expects a call because he thinks I might be overplaying pocket kings.

If I fold this every time, I think I’m losing money by folding the best hand a lot. If I call this every time, I’ll lose money by paying off the good players who know better. Which loses me less money? I don’t know.