I had good sessions all weekend. But I have one problem in my game. I’m unable to sniff out sets. I’d agree with anyone who said my river bet on this hand was spewy, but I would have called an all in by my opponent anyway. I was pretty confident I was ahead. I had my opponent on two pair.

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 9 Players

Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

UTG+1: $40.90 (163.6 bb)

MP1: $34.15 (136.6 bb)

MP2: $22.80 (91.2 bb)

MP3: $19.60 (78.4 bb)

CO: $24.90 (99.6 bb)

BTN: $24.65 (98.6 bb)

SB: $25.75 (103 bb)

Hero (BB): $28.20 (112.8 bb)

UTG: $19.95 (79.8 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with K Q

UTG raises to $0.50, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, MP3 calls $0.50, CO folds, BTN calls $0.50, SB folds, Hero calls $0.25

Flop: ($2.60) A J 7 (5 players)

Hero checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, BTN bets $1.45, Hero calls $1.45, UTG folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds

Turn: ($5.50) T (2 players)

Hero checks, BTN bets $3, Hero raises to $8.75, BTN calls $5.75

River: ($23) J (2 players)

Hero bets $17.50 and is all-in, BTN calls $13.95 and is all-in

My 10 biggest losing hands this weekend were all sets (or sets that rivered a full boat).

Results: $50.90 pot ($2.45 rake)

Hero showed K Q (a straight, Ten to Ace) and lost (-$24.65 net)

BTN showed 7 7 (a full house, Sevens full of Jacks) and won $48.45 ($23.80 net)

My 10 biggest losing hands this weekend were all sets (or sets that rivered a full boat).  3 of those 10 I lost when I had a set and my opponent had a better set.  If anyone has any tricks up their sleeves on how to sniff sets out, please share.

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 8 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BTN: $23.40 (93.6 bb)
Hero (SB): $34.65 (138.6 bb)
BB: $10.40 (41.6 bb)
UTG+1: $9.25 (37 bb)
MP1: $15 (60 bb)
MP2: $28.55 (114.2 bb)
MP3: $24.75 (99 bb)
CO: $13.65 (54.6 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with 4 A
6 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.50) Q 2 Q (2 players)
Hero bets $0.75, BB calls $0.75

Turn: ($3) T (2 players)
Hero bets $1.25, BB calls $1.25

River: ($5.50) J (2 players)
Hero bets $2.75, BB raises to $7.65 and is all-in, Hero calls $4.90

Results: $20.80 pot ($1 rake)
BB showed Q Q (four of a kind, Queens) and won $19.80 ($9.40 net)
Hero mucked 4 A (a flush, Ace high) and lost (-$10.40 net)

On the flop, I make a half-pot c-bet: standard.

On the turn, I pick up the nut flush draw, so I fire a second barrel.  When he calls, I decide to give up unless a heart falls.

On the river, I get the runner-runner flush.  I suspect he’ll call most bets with his possible holdings.  But my flush is pretty transparent.  So, when he raises, I put him on the following possible holdings:

Villain has any single queen for a set: 40%

Villain has a smaller flush: 35%

Villain has QT or a full boat: 10%

Villain has QJ for a different full boat: 10%

Villain is on a some kind of weak bluff: 5%

Villain has QQ for the stone cold nuts: <1%

I don’t think I could have played this much differently.  Generally I’d be very happy to be able to build the pot so well when I make the nut flush on the river.  I don’t think there’s much chance I could have sniffed out the quads (I’m not sure you can every sniff them out).

I played poker for 5 nights in a row in Montana.  It was great fun.  I won some and lost some.  I’m definitely a semi-loose player.  I had some serious swings.  I lost some big hands and won some big hands.  All in all, it was crazy fun.

Unfortunately, the last night was demoralizing.

Everything was going fine.  I had picked up a bunch of pots and was generally running the table.  Then a new player, some skinny kid with a giant forehead, sat down.  You never know what to believe at the poker table, but this player claimed to “never play poker”.  He plopped down $40 on a $1/2 NLHE table and began to play.  He played semi-loose and passive.  He picked up a pot or two in his first 10 hands and built his stack up to about $70.  People were mostly giving his raises credit.

In middle position I got AA and bet out $6 and the new player raised me to $12.  I re-raised all-in for $140-ish and he called.  He turned over AK off suit…DOMINATION.  I love my hand.  The flop comes Q83 rainbow and I’m feeling even better.  The turn comes J and he begins to call for a ten…which he gets.

I feel tilty…I work hard to let it go and I think I’m doing well.  I avoid playing anything marginal for at least a couple of revolutions to settle down.  I reload another $60.

I get dealt JQ suited in late position and call Forehead Guy’s pre-flop $6 raise.  The flop comes jack-high double suited (not my suit) and Forehead Guy checks to me.  I bet out $10 into the $15 pot.  He calls.  The turn comes A.  Forehead checks and I bet out $20 into the $35 pot, Forehead calls.  The river comes Q giving me two pair and Forehead bets $40 putting me all-in for $40 more.  I am committed and call, even though I’m feeling pretty confident that he must have caught something.  He rolls over KT suited.  He flopped a four flush and chased it the whole way, backdooring a straight instead.

I reload again for another $80.  We have two more hands together, Forehead and me.  One I win for a small pot when pocket nines hold up against another drawing hand.  Then I get dealt pocket queens, the flop is jack-high and I bet the pot, the turn is an underpair to my queens and I bet and the river is an ace.  I bet out and Forehead raises me for the last $12 bucks or so I have left.  I know he’s got an ace, but I’ve got to call just in case he thinks his paired jack is good.  He does indeed have an ace rag.

I had slapped over $300 on the table throughout the night.  Luckily I had some wins against the other players at the table.  Unfortunately I gave Forehead Guy a lot of money.  I end the night down just over $100.  I feel like I played pretty well throughout the night.  I can’t think of a lot of hands that I think I played wrong.  Sometimes the deck just kicks your butt.  This was one of those nights.

Before you read this, I predict that you won’t believe it.  I swear that the contents of this post are true.  This actually happened in a live poker game.  This was not Full Tilt.  This is absolutely real.

I’m back in Montana for work.  I gathered a number of co-workers and we descended on the Cat’s Paw.  They were dealing $1/2 NL dealer’s choice (only high games).  I didn’t get very good cards and I missed a few draws and so I was down about $75-80 when this hand came up.  I had about $120 in front of me and the dealer had called 7-stud high.  Three players had limped around to me in the CO and I had Kd Td (6d).  Not a single diamond had come out on the board yet.  I just called because a very, very loose aggressive player was on the button.  He raised to $12 and everyone called.  The next card was a 8d and this time a player between us who had kings showing went all in for another $24.  LAGgy Joe called with two hearts showing 8h 6h and I went all in for about $112.  In Montana there’s a pot cap of $300 so I got a little rebate back from the pot.  LAGgy Joe called.  The next 2 cards were blanks for me, but the final down card was a 4d.  He turns it over and says he has the nut flush.  Only he didn’t.  He had a king-high flush.  I said so did I.  He had a flush KT.  So did I.  He had a flush KT8.  So did I.  He had KT86.  So did I.  He had KT865.  I had KT864.  He wins the pot.  I’m crippled.

I went all in pre-flop for about $25 on the next hand (Omaha) with Ah Qc Jc 9d.  The flop came Kc Td 8s.  But it never panned out for me and I lost to a set of kings.  I decided that it would be foolish to plop more money down on the table.  I’m glad I stood up because I was definitely tilting.

Chicago itself doesn’t really have casinos.  We have a few just over the border in Indiana.  But I live in the northwest suburbs and so I have to travel all the way around the city to get to those casinos (translated: 45-90 minutes each way).

What we do have is Rockford Charitable Games.  They put on “events” many days of every week where they have live poker and at least some of the money goes to a charity.  Last night it was right in my neck of the woods.  For background, I had a weird day.  It was probably the wrong day to be playing poker.  I got up at 4:30 AM to catch a 6:30 AM flight to Midland, Michigan to meet with a customer and then back home again at 7 PM.  So I drove right from O’hare to this banquet hall where they were holding this event.

How was it?  Well, on one hand I was impressed.  They have roughly 12 cash tables in operation spreading $1/2 NLHE, $3/6 NLHE and $2/5 LHE.  They also had a big $200 MTT with at least 3 tables running and several SNGs running at $25, $50 and $115.  The tables were mostly full.

I started the night playing a $25 SNG which was a waste of money.  We got $1600 chips, with starting blinds of 25/50 and the blinds doubled every 8 minutes.  So in 24 minutes if I played no hands I would have 8 big blinds.  I had only 32 big blinds in the first round.  It was kinda sick.  Two players were running the table with raw aggression (but showing down some good hands).  I made a couple of bad plays and found myself in level 2 with only 500 left (5 BBs).  I open raised all-in from MP with A7o and was called by the BB with J7s.  She caught a flush on the river and I was gone.

So I walked over to the $1/2 tables.  I bought in max for $150.  Early on I raised to $8 pre-flop with As 9s and had 2 callers–both the LAGs at the table.  The flop came Jc 3c 9d.  One of the LAGs who had called from the blind bet out $15 and I called.  The turn came 9c and he bet out $15 and I re-popped him for $45 and he called.  The river came a fourth club and I hated my life.  He checked and I checked behind.  He had 6c Tc and so he’d caught the flush on the turn and believed that potentially I had made a higher flush.  I don’t think that if I’d have pushed on the river he would have folded.  So that cut my stack way down early.

I played the night mostly tight which meant that I was being run over by LAGs all night.  There was no shortage of them.  We had lots of limping and lots of semi-bluffing.  There were middle pairs winning all night.  When I had a decent hand, I would get run out of it by a pot sized bet from someone with middle pair and a gutshot straight draw.  It was sick.  I lost two more big hands: once where I flopped two pair with KQ on a KQ9x board and went all in.  The villain called with JJ and caught a T on the river for the straight and the other time when I had JJ and the board came 99J and I pushed and was called with 94s and the river gave him the fourth 9.  In these two hands I did the right thing by getting in when I was ahead.  It happens.

Either way, it didn’t feel good.  I wasn’t comfortable and I felt like I was outgunned.  Some of it was the cards.  I was dealt absolute crap all night.  I think I saw 7T like 50 times in 300 hands.  I got dealt pocket queens twice and won with it twice for smallish pots.  Apart from that, I think I got pocket 7s, 6s and 2s once each and never caught a set.

The hardest part of the night was that there was one very good LAG at the table.  He was loose and had great instincts.  If I had nothing and decided to bluff he called.  If I had something, he folded.  I’m not sure if I was throwing off some tells–either physically or with my bet size–but he had my number (or got lucky a lot).  I honestly don’t know how best to play on a table full of LAGs.  I know conventional wisdom says “play TAG”, but most of these LAGs were smart and would fold when I bet OR had caught and punished me with huge raises that I either called (and lost) or folded to.  I’ll need to develop a strategy for this.

It seems like people who go to these events are poker players.  They are people that have had to work to seek out the game and have generally come a good distance to play.  In other words, there aren’t a lot of fish–no tourists, no casual players, no people who are there to play black jack but have watched WPT on TV and want to try their hand at poker.  These are people who play poker.  I was the fish, the casual player, the guy who thought he could play.

Anyway, I lost a good amount and felt like crap about my game.  So I went home and beat up on some online $.5/.10 tables.  I ended up just up slightly, but only because I was just messing around.  At one point I was way up but lost a lot of it when I ran up against quads (for the record, that’s twice in one night–once live and once online–what are the odds?).  It didn’t matter whether I won or not.  It had the desired effect of boosting my confidence.

So, would I recommend playing at a Rockford Charitable Games event?  Hmmm…if you are jonesing for some live poker and don’t mind a loose, fast game with solid players, then yes.  If you’re looking for a game with challenging yet beatable poker including some tourists and casual players, then no.

In other news…

I started reading the twoplustwo.com forums.  What an excellent resource.  I’ve learned a bunch of things already.  I also got partnered with a guy from Russia for a sweat session tomorrow which I’m looking forward to.

And Saturday I’ll be playing in a home tournament (and hopefully cash game) with some casual players.  I should have an edge, but I really haven’t had too good of luck in the home games so far.  I’m hoping for some good luck and I’m going to try to play a little better than I have in the past with these games.

So yesterday I commented on another blog about how I don’t think FullTilt is rigged (it might still be waiting for moderation).  There I go defending it and saying that anything can happen and that we can profit from people who chase outside draws.  How does FullTilt reward me?

Last night I played a lot of hands, hundreds.  But even still, what are the odds that I would lose to quads three times in one night.  Pretty $%&@%* low!

In the $.10/.25 cash game I lost about $15 when I ran into quad 5s when I had a queen-high flush (all the money was in on the turn when I had the flush and he had a set of 5s, he rivered his fourth 5).

The next time in the same cash game I had turned Js full of 3s.  The same player as last time had the other 2 3s.  I called his all in bet assuming he had A3s or something similar.  There goes $12 or so.

The last time, in a $5 90-player SNG, I’ve made it about half way through the field and I’ve got a very big stack.  I call a pre-flop raise with AJ and the flop comes AJ8.  He bets out the pot.  I re-raise him all-in.  I have him barely covered.  He flips A8.  He hits runner-runner 8s to hit quad 8s.  His set of 8s beats me, but FullTilt wanted me to know it hates my guts so it put the fourth 8 out there.

I lost a lot last night thanks mostly to these hands and despite the fact that I won a $5 9-player SNG and multiple $2 heads up games.  That’s not enough when you lose two $25 buy-ins to the $.10/.25 cash game.

Last night my biggest weakness (besides terrible luck) was calling the river bet when I was pretty sure I was beat.  I don’t know why I need to see the flush when I was pretty sure he was chasing it the whole time.  I guess it is because I’ve been betting my hands hard and so I’ve taken away my opponents pot odds to chase on the flop and the turn already, so I feel like they shouldn’t have caught.  But I know they have.  I must remember to stop.

My second biggest weakness is bluffing loose-aggressive maniacs.  I read them right, that all they have is middle or top pair and the river put a straight or flush on the board so I bet the river to try and take the pot.  But these guys will call with middle pair.  I need to wait them out and get a good hand so I can take everything when they have top pair and I have the nuts or second nuts.

OK, so I feel like I’m getting better at this game and all, but there are obviously still holes in the game that need to be plugged.  If there weren’t, I wouldn’t keep losing money every time I play.  So, I was up by a few bucks feeling good about myself.  I’d played hands right and then this hand came up.

Seriously, is there any way I could avoid this or was I just destined to lose a bunch on this hand?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com – Hand History Converter

CO: $5.55

BTN: $13.55

SB: $24.80

Hero (BB): $28.20

UTG: $22.90

UTG+1: $29.30

UTG+2: $38.35

MP1: $7.15

MP2: $25

Pre-Flop: 6 8 dealt to Hero (BB)

2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.25, MP1 raises to $0.50, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.50, SB folds, Hero calls $0.25, UTG+2 calls $0.25

Flop: ($2.10) 6 J 6 (4 Players)

Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($2.10) 2 (4 Players)
Hero bets $1, UTG+2 folds, MP1 raises to $2, BTN calls $2, Hero raises to $13, MP1 folds, BTN calls $11

River: ($30.10) A (2 Players)

Hero checks, BTN checks

Results: $30.10 Pot ($1.50 Rake)
BTN showed 2 2 (a full house, Twos full of Sixes) and WON $28.60 (+$15.10 NET)
Hero showed 6 8 (three of a kind, Sixes) and LOST (-$13.50 NET)

On business in Calgary for two days.  I landed at midnight last night and got directions to one of the casinos.  I ended up at the Stampede Casino (which is brand new, opened a week or so ago) playing $1/2 NL.  The table was playing very loose.  One player who claimed to be on tilt played every hand for the first 15 I saw and won at least 12 of them, losing only small amounts those few times.  Normal pre-flop raises started at $10 and could be as high as $20.  Everyone was chasing.  The first hand I saw showdown was a three way all-in pre-flop where the players showed down (this is true) KK, 57 off suit and 66.   57 off suit won about $450 when he hit two pair.

I tried to play good tight aggressive poker.  Once I called a $12 pre-flop raise with KJs and 3 other players and then hit top pair and a gutshot straight draw on the flop with 2 suited cards on the flop (not my suit).  I bet out $40 (about 2/3 the pot) and was raised to $160.  That $160 was called by 2 players.  I folded.  The raiser had the nut flush draw and hit it.  Mind you, I bought in for just $200, but am now feeling much like a short stack considering the size of the raises.  These players are prepared to put in their whole stacks and just rebuy for $300.

I decide to play good short stack strategy.  I am going to tighten up the starting requirements and then push them hard.

After folding about 20 hands in a row, I get dealt AQ in the cutoff.  UTG (loose-passive) limps.  EP (a very drunk girl, loose aggressive) bets $8.  I raise to $25.  The button (loose-passive calling station) calls as does the BB (very loose aggressive), UTG and EP.  The flop comes 8TQ rainbow.  UTG checks, EP bets $40, I decide that I want to get it all in before anyone completes their straight and hopefully isolate to just my drunk friend.  I go all in for what I have left $107.  EVERYONE goes all in!  The main pot (I was the shortest stack by a tiny bit) is now around $690, which doesn’t matter because I can’t imagine that I’m going to win.  The turn is a blank and the river is a K.  EP turns over J9 off suit but UTG turns over AJ for the straight (which he was chasing).  I only had $200 Canadian dollars on me and didn’t want to hit the ATM again so I went to find my hotel and go to bed.

I don’t know whether I can handle that kind of action.  I’m still trying to decide whether to play again tonight.  I’ll probably try another casino in hopes that we’ll play a little tighter.

I have a fear.  Maybe even a phobia.  It keeps me up at night and I have a hard time breathing sometimes.  I fear the suckout.  I fear it so much that I’ve taken severe measures to try to avoid it, but alas it is no use.

Severe measures like my betting in the following hand.  I’m so afraid that someone will suckout against my set that I push everyone away.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 7 Players
LeggoPoker.com – Hand History Converter

CO: $11.20

BTN: $11.10

SB: $10.10

BB: $9

UTG: $12.85

Hero (UTG+1): $8.70

MP: $15.25

Pre-Flop: 3 A dealt to Hero (UTG+1)

UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.30, MP folds, CO calls $0.30, BTN folds, SB calls $0.25, BB folds

Flop: ($1) 9 3 3 (3 Players)

SB checks, Hero bets $0.50, CO raises to $1, SB folds, Hero raises to $2, CO calls $1

Turn: ($5) 2 (2 Players)
Hero bets $5, CO folds

Results: $5 Pot ($0.50 Rake)
Hero mucked 3 A and WON $4.50 (+$2.20 NET)

But then again, why shouldn’t I fear the suckout, when I see hands like this one (against a player I saw push top pair to the river multiple times.)  Please note my pot sized bet on the turn that said “don’t draw out on me, please, I have a very good hand, a made hand.  You can’t beat my hand unless you draw out on me and I bet you have 4 outs, so you should let that hand go.”  Also note that my call on the river was a crying call and I hated to make it, but I had to see it.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com – Hand History Converter

SB: $35.55

BB: $52.40

UTG: $14.15

MP: $31.50

Hero (CO): $24.65

BTN: $21

Pre-Flop: A A dealt to Hero (CO)

UTG calls $0.25, MP folds, Hero raises to $1, 3 folds, UTG calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.35) 7 3 6 (2 Players)

UTG checks, Hero bets $1.50, UTG calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.35) 8 (2 Players)

UTG checks, Hero bets $5, UTG calls $5

River: ($15.35) 5 (2 Players)
UTG bets $6.65 and is All-In, Hero calls $6.65

Results: $28.65 Pot ($1.40 Rake)
UTG showed 6 4 (a straight, Eight high) and WON $27.25 (+$13.10 NET)
Hero mucked A A (a pair of Aces) and LOST (-$14.15 NET)

I’ve got a problem. I can win small pots all night with crappy hands. But when I have the best hand and get all the money into the middle, I can’t win. Winning a little and losing a lot is a bad formula. Tonight it was amazing. Check out these 2 hands where I lost my buy-ins. I’m playing the $.05/.10 games to try to build up my bankroll so I can play at the higher levels. This is not helping.

Hand #1

Full Tilt Poker, $0.05/$0.10 PL Hold’em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com – Hand History Converter

UTG+2: $4.70

MP1: $1.90

MP2: $5.60

CO: $3.80

BTN: $2.85

SB: $8.25

BB: $5.15

Hero (UTG): $8.65

UTG+1: $9.25

Pre-Flop: A K dealt to Hero (UTG)

Hero calls $0.10, 3 folds, MP2 calls $0.10, CO folds, BTN raises to $0.20, SB calls $0.15, BB calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.80, MP2 folds, BTN calls $0.60, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.10) 4 A 3 (2 Players)
Hero bets $2.10, BTN calls $2.05 and is All-In

Turn: ($6.20) 2 (2 Players – 1 is All-In)

River: ($6.20) 3 (2 Players – 1 is All-In)

Results: $6.20 Pot ($0.60 Rake)
BTN showed 5 5 (a straight, Five high) and WON $5.60 (+$2.75 NET)
Hero showed A K (two pair, Aces and Threes) and LOST (-$2.85 NET)

Hand #2

Full Tilt Poker, $0.05/$0.10 PL Hold’em Cash Game, 7 Players
LeggoPoker.com – Hand History Converter

BTN: $10.55

SB: $12.10

BB: $6.05

UTG: $8.50

UTG+1: $4.30

MP: $15.45

Hero (CO): $10.55

Pre-Flop: 2 K dealt to Hero (CO)

UTG+1 calls $0.10, MP folds, Hero calls $0.10, 2 folds, BB calls $0.05, UTG raises to $0.50, UTG+1 calls $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.60) K 2 T (3 Players)
UTG bets $0.80, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $2.20, UTG calls $1.40

Turn: ($6) 5 (2 Players)

UTG checks, Hero bets $6, UTG calls $5.80 and is All-In

River: ($17.60) T (2 Players – 1 is All-In)

Results: $17.60 Pot ($1.75 Rake)
UTG showed A A (two pair, Aces and Tens) and WON $15.85 (+$7.35 NET)
Hero showed 2 K (two pair, Kings and Tens) and LOST (-$8.50 NET)

OK, I know what you’re thinking, “why play K2 suited out of position against a raise?”. I’d been playing very few pots recently and I didn’t want my table image to be too tight so that I wouldn’t get action when I got a big hand. I like to play a few weird hands from time to time just in case. Theoretically you’ll flop two pair against a hand like aces and then you can get all the other player’s money. Or he can suck out on you on the river and you can lose all your chips and then go whine about it on your blog. I choose option B.

Oh yeah, and I lost 2 tournaments tonight when I got the other player all-in pre-flop when I was holding aces. I don’t know why I think pocket aces are any good. Apparently I’m missing my opportunities by not pushing harder with pocket sixes or pocket nines.

This game is cruel.