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Not a Bad Beat, Just a Kick in the Teeth

September 30, 2008

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 8 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BTN: $23.40 (93.6 bb)
Hero (SB): $34.65 (138.6 bb)
BB: $10.40 (41.6 bb)
UTG+1: $9.25 (37 bb)
MP1: $15 (60 bb)
MP2: $28.55 (114.2 bb)
MP3: $24.75 (99 bb)
CO: $13.65 (54.6 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with 4 of hearts A of hearts
6 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.50) Q of diamonds 2 of hearts Q of spades (2 players)
Hero bets $0.75, BB calls $0.75

Turn: ($3) T of hearts (2 players)
Hero bets $1.25, BB calls $1.25

River: ($5.50) J of hearts (2 players)
Hero bets $2.75, BB raises to $7.65 and is all-in, Hero calls $4.90

Results: $20.80 pot ($1 rake)
BB showed Q of clubs Q of hearts (four of a kind, Queens) and won $19.80 ($9.40 net)
Hero mucked 4 of hearts A of hearts (a flush, Ace high) and lost (-$10.40 net)

On the flop, I make a half-pot c-bet: standard.

On the turn, I pick up the nut flush draw, so I fire a second barrel.  When he calls, I decide to give up unless a heart falls.

On the river, I get the runner-runner flush.  I suspect he’ll call most bets with his possible holdings.  But my flush is pretty transparent.  So, when he raises, I put him on the following possible holdings:

Villain has any single queen for a set: 40%

Villain has a smaller flush: 35%

Villain has QT or a full boat: 10%

Villain has QJ for a different full boat: 10%

Villain is on a some kind of weak bluff: 5%

Villain has QQ for the stone cold nuts: <1%

I don’t think I could have played this much differently.  Generally I’d be very happy to be able to build the pot so well when I make the nut flush on the river.  I don’t think there’s much chance I could have sniffed out the quads (I’m not sure you can every sniff them out).

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